The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500-2000

Kennedy warns, however, that the relationship among them is quite fragile and never easy. For example, if a country spends too much money in order to increase his its military power (renforcing its political power), it will surely undermine its economic power (the original source of the other two).

In his opinion, the great powers are those states who can reach the best balance of military and economic strength, and he also thinks that as soon as they lose that ability they lose their place to another great power.

Kennedy shows us how this relationship has worked throughout time, and how much it has influenced on the balance of power between countries. He specifically studies the period from 1500 to the mid - 1980's, and even though he might concentrate too much on Europe (as he warns beforehand), he gets his point across quite well.

Some of Kennedy's predictions weren't accurate: he predicted the fall of USA as a great power, and believed that Japan would take its place. What is more, he wasn't able to foresee the fall of the Soviet Union, a few years after his book was published.

However, his ideas and his theory are quite good, and still valid, as is his warning regarding the danger of "Imperial overestretch" to the great powers (specifically USA).

I recommend this book to those who want to understand what is happening today. Even if it is somehow dated, many of its premises are still valid, and the historical perspective is almost flawless.

Belen Alcat


Kennedy is a spiritual son of Toynbee and Spengler   July 4, 2002
Thierry Le Cocq (Paris France)
8 out of 8 found this review helpful

This book is a brilliant example of economic history. Written in Paul Kennedy's usual crystal-clear and riveting style, the Rise & Fall provides a comprehensive view of how political and economic might are connected. The book is also an illustration of the process of challenge and response described by Toynbee in relation to the life and death of civilizations. It is definitely an absolute must to anyone who whishes to understand some of the great laws of human evolution, what Spengler called the morphology of history.


Remembering the past, seeing the future...   December 28, 2005
Kurt Messick (London, SW1)
8 out of 8 found this review helpful

History is a wonderful study, a professor of mine once commented, of the interlocking circles of influence, whereby one can find often that an obscure arranged marriage in the Dark Ages could be responsible for a thermonuclear exchange or a hostile corporate takeover today.

Of course, he was exaggerating, but only by a matter of degrees. History is the study of the interconnexions of human beings in their actions over time, and to that end, the more we understand of the past, the better chance we have of surviving and flourishing into the future.

Paul Kennedy's book, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers is an insightful, sweeping examination of the centuries of the growth and dominance and, lately, relative decline of the European powers over the rest of the globe. To a lesser extent (because they were lesser players) he draws in Asian, and finally, American players, although as will be seen, they began to play the game according to the European rules.

He pays particular attention to the economic and military aspects of the motivations of national and ethnic decision-making; so often history (or at least popular history) has portrayed such as purely political, religious (at least until the last few centuries), or royal-family intrigues. Kennedy explores the forgotten aspects in a popular format; hence the question (as the Gulf War is almost universally recognised as, in reality, a war of economic necessity rather than for political or moral purpose, which tended to be added later)--were the Hapsburgs responsible? Rather, that is a way of asking, are the same motivations that were at play with Great Power relationships in 1500 still at play today? Have we learned anything?

At the beginning of 1500, it was by no means certain that Europe would become the dominant region of powers in the world. China was in decline but still perhaps the greatest power. Empires in India, Japan, and around Muscovy were also contenders. To their detriment, however, each of these powers tended to be isolated and introspective, more concerned with internal consistency and preservation of 'a way of life', whereas the smaller European powers had to compete with each other, and adapt and improve to survive. 'This dynamic of technological change and military competitiveness drove Europe forward in its usual jostling, pluralistic way.'

Occasionally, Europe tended toward the Asian models, particularly with the dominance of the Hapsburgs who, at their height, controlled much of Europe and began to insist on the same kinds of religious, historical, mercantile and cultural conformity that cost the other empires their vitality.

Great power struggles that occurred between 1660 and 1815 are difficult to characterise briefly, but chiefly is marked by the emergence of a cluster of powerful states which came to dominate diplomacy and militarily. After the Napoleonic era, there was a lull in Great Power warfare, until this century, when even the flank powers of Britain and Russia were a bit too central to the conflicts to survive with both military and economic strength intact.

'Given this book's concern with the interaction between strategy and economics, it seemed appropriate to offer a final (if necessarily speculative) chapter to explore the present disjuncture between the military balances and the productive balances among the Great Powers; and to point to the problems and opportunities facing today's five large politico-economic power centres...as they grapple with the age-old task of relating national means to national ends. The history of the rise and fall of the Great Powers has in no way come to a full stop.'

These Kennedy identifies as The United States, Japan, the EEC, the Russian States, and China. Of course, this has the possibility of shifting, too, as countries such as India and Brazil acquire more military and economic strength; countries such as Indonesia that are resource- and population-rich could also achieve Great Power status before long (historically speaking).

Kennedy pays homage to the Prussian historian Leopold von Ranke, who wrote about die grossen Maechte in 1833, following since the fall of Spain. von Ranke also produces speculative chapters; perhaps it is natural for historians to want to chart the course of the future as well as mapping out the past.

This book reads like an epic, but is generally accessible (though somewhat intricate) and gives interesting insights, and is significant for what is does not address (many political scientists and historians will find some major theories ignored) as well as for the fresh approaches it does employ. Best read with other history books.


Terrific: Exciting, shocking - in the AJP Taylor League   October 20, 2001
J. C. Okonkwo (London, England)
10 out of 11 found this review helpful

This is a really terrific book. The ambition level in writing a book of truly global history covering five hundred years is of course towering - and the reader is not disappointed. I would compare it to AJP Taylor's "Struggle for Mastery in Europe" in scope and quality of writing. What makes this book special - and play in the AJP Taylor Zone - is the ability to overlay facts with historical perspective, resulting in a number of really interesting facts. For example, why Europe's belligerance was both its rise and also, its downfall - how the great wars of european combinations were a theme from 1500 all the way through to 1939, and not just a late nineteen/twentieth century phenomena, and consequently, why Europe was doomed: almost like war kept catching fire, and then exhausting itself, like a bomb is used to extinguish oil rig fires. Similiarly, how Islam arrived in the Northern Indian Subcontinent, and the Balkans. Why the Spanish nation declined. The impact of the industrial revolution. Many of these topics are areas we were taught at school, but sometimes have not necessarily taken with the appropriate judgement - for example, when AJP Taylor says Britain and France's imperialism were a sign of its weakness, not its strength - by preying on non-european states. Read it, you will find it of huge educational value, and it fills in a lot of gaps in understanding. My only caution is that whilst its perspective is global, ultimately, it is the story of the great powers and therefore, is focussed largely on the first and second worlds.